Who Runs the World? The Three Global Orders Shaping Our Future
Who runs the world? This used to be so easy to answer.
If you're over 45 like me, you grew up in a world with two giants. The United States called the shots on one side of the wall. The Soviets set the rules on the other. This was a bipolar world. Very simple.
If you're under 45, you grew up when the Soviet Union had already fallen. That left the United States as the sole superpower. The US ran global groups and used raw power. This was a unipolar world.
Then about 15 years ago, things got more complex. The US didn't want to be the world's cop anymore. It didn't want to lead global trade or push global values. Other nations grew stronger. They could skip rules they didn't like. Some even made new rules.
What Changed Our World?
Three big shifts happened:
- Russia's Failed Path - Russia didn't join Western groups. A once great power now in deep decline, and angry about it. We can debate who's at fault, but here we are.
- China's Rise - China joined US-led groups based on the idea that as they got richer, they would become more like Americans. But they stayed Chinese. The US isn't happy with that.
- Citizens Left Behind - Tens of millions of people in the US and other rich nations felt globalization didn't help them. Leaders ignored this for decades. As a result, many saw their own governments as less valid.
Look at today's news driving all the world's tensions. Over 90 percent stems from these three causes.
That's why we now live in a leaderless world. But as we know, this won't last forever.
The Three Global Orders: Security, Economic, and Digital
What comes next? What kind of world order might we expect over the next ten years? Some of what I'll say may surprise you.
We won't have a bipolar, unipolar, or even a multipolar world. If we don't have one or two superpowers, we don't have a single global order. Instead, we'll have three different orders that overlap a bit.
The Global Security Order: US Dominance
Today, we have a global security order. The United States and its allies are the most powerful players on the map. The US is the only country that can send soldiers, sailors, and military equipment to every corner of the world. No one else comes close.
China is growing its military power in Asia, though nowhere else. Many US allies in Asia worry about this. As a result, they rely more on the United States for safety.
With Russia's attack on Ukraine, US allies in Europe also depend more on the US and NATO. The Russian military is less of a global concern now. They've lost over 200,000 troops and lots of equipment. Sanctions make it very hard for them to rebuild.
Russia, China, and others have nuclear weapons, but using them is still suicide. So our security order is unipolar, with the US on top. This will likely stay true for the next decade.
The Global Economic Order: Shared Power
At the same time, there's a global economic order where power is shared. The US has a strong economy, but it can't use its military might to boss other countries around economically.
The US and China depend greatly on each other. You might be surprised to hear that US-China trade is at its highest level ever right now.
Many countries want US military protection but also want to sell to China's market, which may be the world's largest by 2030. You can't have a cold war if the US and China are the only ones ready to fight it.
The European Union has the largest common market and sets the rules. If you want to do business there, you follow those rules. India plays a bigger role now, and Japan still matters too.
Over the next ten years, these economies will rise and fall in power, but the global economic order will stay multipolar.
Tensions Between the Orders
These two orders create tension. The US uses its security power to pull more economies toward it. We see this happening with computer chips, key minerals, and maybe soon with TikTok.
China uses its strong business position to align more countries with it diplomatically.
Japan, Europe, India, and others will try hard to make sure neither order controls the other. They will mostly succeed.
So far, I've talked about the two world orders we already see. But a third one is coming soon that's even more important - the digital order.
The Rise of the Digital Order: Technology Companies as Global Powers
The third and most vital order is the digital order. Unlike the other two, this one isn't run by nations. It's run by tech firms.
Real-World Tech Power
Look at Ukraine. We all know how much military help NATO has given Ukraine during the war. But it's tech firms that gave Ukraine the tools to fight off Russian cyber attacks. These same firms helped Ukrainian leaders talk to their generals and troops. Without these tech firms, Ukraine would have been offline within weeks of the war. I don't think President Zelensky would still be there today.
Tech firms decide if Donald Trump can speak in real time, without filters, to hundreds of millions as he runs for president again. Social media sites can spread false info and wild theories. Without them, we wouldn't have seen:
- Riots at the U.S. Capitol on January 6
- Trucker protests in Ottawa
- The January 8 uprising in Brazil
Shaping Who We Are
Tech firms now shape our very sense of self. When I grew up, we thought our traits came from nature or nurture. My deep feelings and problems came from how I was raised or some genetic flaw. Maybe both.
But today, who we are comes from nature, nurture, and algorithms. If you want to push back on the system, you can't just question those in charge like we were told to do growing up. Now you must question the algorithm. That's a huge amount of power in the hands of tech firms.
Three Possible Futures
What will tech firms do with all this power? It depends on who they want to be when they grow up.
- Tech Cold War: If China and the U.S. try to control the digital world, and tech firms in these nations side with their governments, we'll end up with a tech cold war. The digital order will split in two.
- New Digital Globalization: If tech firms keep global business models and we still see competition between the digital and physical worlds, we'll have a new kind of global order - a digital one.
- Technopolar World: If the digital order grows stronger while governments get weaker (and we've seen this start to happen), tech firms will become the main global players in every way. We'll have a technopolar order.
Which path we take will decide if we live in a world of endless chances or a world with no freedom.
The Urgent Questions for Technology Titans
Now at this point in my speech, I'm supposed to talk about the good news. But those of you that have heard this know that that is not coming. There is no pause button on these explosive and disruptive technologies.
I don't know if you know this. There are over a hundred people in the world today with the knowledge and the technology to create a new smallpox virus. Honestly, I don't have answers. But I have a few questions for the people that do.
Key Questions for Tech Leaders
We need to know:
- Are they going to act accountably as they release new and powerful artificial intelligence?
- What are they going to do with this unprecedented amount of data that they are collecting on us and our environment?
- Will they persist with these advertising models driving so much revenue that are turning citizens into products and driving hate and misinformation and ripping apart our society?
This last question should concern us all right now the most.
America's Changing Global Role
When I was a student back in 1989 and the wall fell, the United States was the principal exporter of democracy in the world. Not always successfully, often hypocritically, but number one, nonetheless.
The technology leaders who create and control these tools, are they okay with that? Or are they going to do something about it? We need to know.
